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Yield Curve

August 22, 2026 · Aditya Gupta

Investing

The yield curve plots Treasury yields by maturity (3-month, 2-year, 10-year, 30-year). Normally, longer maturities yield more — the curve slopes upward. An inverted yield curve (short-term yields higher than long-term) has preceded every US recession in the past 50 years, often by 6-18 months. The 10-year minus 2-year spread is the most-watched indicator. Inversions occur when investors expect future rate cuts in response to economic weakness. Mortgages, savings rates, and corporate borrowing costs all reference points on the yield curve. The 2022-2023 inversion preceded much of the 2023 banking stress and slower growth.

Investing

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